This slides contains 2 boxes that describe Uncertainty Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis. “Uncertainty Analysis: Based on considerations of requirement, cost estimating, and technical uncertainty; Increases confidence in the estimate. Doesn't increase the precision of the estimate; Tool: Monte Carlo Simulation; Output: “Most Likely” or “Expected” cost and value”. “Sensitivity Analysis: Based on the output of the Monte Carlo Simulation; Sensitive variables have a significant impact on the overall estimate; Output: Identification of which variables have a significant impact on the overall estimate. Can be used to determine which variables merit additional research.”
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